photos courtesy of Gary Morrison

Another cautionary tale on stock-picking

by Steve on February 20, 2012

Want yet another example of how stock picking is a loser’s game? From the list below, guess the security that has had the highest and lowest returns in 2012: 

  • SPDR S&P 500 index ETF
  • Sears Holdings (SHLD) – the retail giant that recently announced it would close up to 120 of its stores.
  • Bank of America (BAC) – the beleaguered financial giant with a backlog of bad house loans.
  • First Solar (FSLR) – makes thin film solar modules and became infamous last year for questionable financials related to government subsidies; its stock lost 76% of its value in 2011 and the company President was fired.
  • Netflix (NFLX) – the online and mail order video rental business that has repeatedly angered customer by its pricing.

 If you guessed that the stock of Sears Holdings is up the most this year, you’d be right. The stock price of this embattled retailer has increased by 72% so far in 2012. The lowest return has been for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF that has increased a “lowly” 8.66% so far in 2012.

Yet, at the beginning of the year, how many investors would have bet that Sears would have increased in value this much? Or how many would have guessed that Bank of America stock would be 38% higher six weeks into the New Year? First Solar stock is up 19% and Netflix stock has gained 68% in 2012. By the way, according to data from Bloomberg, hedge funds, largely unregulated investment pools that aim to make money whether markets rise or fall, have trailed the S&P 500 for the last four months as well.  

Just to remind you: no one knows the future and anyone who invests as if they do is playing a loser’s game. The only way to invest without speculation is to own a basket of low-turnover, low cost, well-diversified and passively-managed mutual funds.

What is a financial fiduciary?

by Steve on February 16, 2012

A prospective client asked me the other day what it means when I say that I’m a fiduciary. Good question. I haven’t written about this topic recently, so I thought I’d blog about it now. When I say I’m a fiduciary, it means I follow these principles:

  1. Work in the best interests of my clients first.  This seems obvious, but I want my clients to know that their interests are above my own. I run a business and make no apologies for it; if I act in my clients’ best interest first, it doesn’t mean I can’t also make a profit. It’s not an either/or question; it’s both.
  2. Act in good faith, meaning behaving honestly and sincerely, without any attempt to deceive. If I know the answer to a question, I’ll tell you; if don’t know the answer to a question, I’ll tell you that too.
  3. Act prudently with the care, skill and judgment of a professional. I promise to use my professional knowledge and experience in my clients’ best interest (see #1 above) and to stay current with personal finance issues, trends and ideas.
  4. Avoid conflicts of interest, which will or reasonably may compromise my impartiality or independence, and disclose any others. I can’t eliminate conflicts of interest, but I can avoid the obvious and bad ones and minimize the rest and tell you about any conflicts that come up, even though they are rare.
  5. Receive no compensation or other remuneration that is contingent on any client’s purchase or sale of a financial product or service. This means I don’t receive a fee or other compensation from another party based on the referral of a client or the client’s business.
  6. Disclose all material facts. Fee and cost transparency is difficult, but necessary if my clients are going to make informed decisions.

If I was looking for a financial advisor, these are the principles I’d want him or her to follow. I wouldn’t settle for anything less. How about you? Please send me an email at steve@finpath.com and let me know your thoughts about how important it is to you to trust a financial fiducicary.

Interest rates will stay low — so what?

February 10, 2012

In case you missed it, last month the Federal Reserve pledged to keep interest rates low until at least late 2014. The Fed said it expects to keep short-term interest rates in the range of 0% to .25% for another two years and is doing this to encourage the economy to grow. This decision will impact [...]

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U.S. Economy Continues to Show Positive Signs

January 26, 2012

The Chicago Federal Reserve Board created a monthly indicator of the health of the overall U.S. economy. This index is called the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and it’s designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. The latest report shows continued improvement in the U.S. economy. To quote from yesterday’s report:  “Led by improvements [...]

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What does it cost?

January 21, 2012

As the New Year has started, I have had several inquiries from people who want to do some sort of financial planning. I’m always happy to hear from people who want to take action on their personal finances. While not everyone is a fit for me, everyone who calls me asks what it costs to engage [...]

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Personal financial truths

December 30, 2011

As 2011 moves into the back ground and the New Year looms brightly ahead, there are five things I know to be true about personal finance: People feel (and fear) a loss more than they enjoy (or look forward to) a gain. Working with clients this year reminded me of this truth and academic research [...]

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Don’t be fooled by randomness when it comes to investing

December 15, 2011

I saw a notice in the paper the other day that Bill Miller is going to retire in April 2012. If you don’t recognize the name, Bill has been the fund manager for the Legg Mason Capital Management Value Trust for 30 years. In the early part of his stewardship, his fund beat the index he measures against, the S&P 500 [...]

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U.S. Economy Continues Snail’s Pace Improvement

November 21, 2011

I know we’re all weary of poor economic news and the media does a great job of reminding us that things are not rosy. However, push aside the negative journalism and there is some good news.  The following is an excerpt from a press release the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank sent out today: “Led by [...]

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One way to ensure markets stay efficient

November 10, 2011

According to the Associated Press, hedge-fund boss Raj Rajarathnam, whose 11-year prison sentence is the longest in U.S. history for insider trading, was ordered to pay a record $92.8 million fine in a civil case brought by the SEC.    

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Worry not about investing winners and losers

November 9, 2011

I was chatting with a fellow soccer Dad over the weekend and he thinks someone is making lots of money from the recent stock market volatility and he is not. His assumption is that some big hedge funds are profiting at the expense of us little people. I told him that’s not true. The tendency is to think [...]

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